Kirk Hopes to Ride a Red Wave to Senate

Illinois Rep. Mark Steven Kirk hopes he is going to be part of a GOP trend in which moderate Republicans beat the odds in decidedly blue states.

Based on the warm reception conservative party chairmen gave the GOP Senate candidate last week during the Illinois State Fair, the Illinois Republican could do just that against his Democratic opponent, state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias.

“How good did you feel when Republican Sen. Scott Brown was elected? I would say don’t let Massachusetts voters have all the fun,” Kirk said while speaking at a breakfast attended by GOP candidates and county chairmen at the Northfield Inn in Springfield on Aug. 19.

At the Illinois State Fair, which marks the unofficial kickoff of the two-month race to Election Day, candidates work to rally the party faithful to spend the fall knocking on doors and making phone calls on their behalf. In past years, Democrat Day was the event to see and be seen at, with the state’s leaders projecting victory at the ballot box. But this year, it was Republicans who had much to celebrate.

“It’s unusual in my experience in Illinois that we have the No. 1 targeted Senate race in the country,” state GOP chair Pat Quinn said before introducing Kirk.

Kirk, a five-term Congressman vying for the seat formerly held by President Barack Obama, wasn’t always the Republican darling in this state. He is a moderate who has for ten years represented a Chicagoland district — an area of the state where numerous elected officials have been accused of ethics problems. Kirk ran into difficulties of his own in May, when it was revealed he embellished his military record. Democrats have also accused him of being a flip-flopper in recent weeks.

But pointing to the decisive lead of Rep. Mike Castle (R) in Delaware’s open race for Vice President Joseph Biden’s Senate seat, Kirk said moderates are on the rise and argued he is exactly the right fit for Illinois in this political climate. And last week, many Republicans seemed to agree.

“There’s just an energy level we haven’t seen in the last three or four fairs,” Illinois House Minority Leader Tom Cross said.

“I think on financial issues, job creation, economic stability, people are going to rally around Mark,” he added. “They’re going to look and say, ‘Maybe I don’t agree with Mark on everything, but he’s running against a guy whose only claim to fame is being a basketball buddy to the president.’ Alexi hasn’t really proven himself.”

Giannoulias also trekked to the fairgrounds in central Illinois last week to gin up Democratic support. The state treasurer, who won his first job in politics in 2006 as a youthful and reform-minded candidate, Giannoulias told backers that “elections are about choices, and this race offers stark choices. We can go back to the failed, reckless, greedy economic policies of George Bush and Mark Kirk that has put this country to its knees, or we can move this country forward.”

But Giannoulias’ message, and the attempt by Democratic Party leaders to inspire unity at the fair, was trumped by a federal jury’s verdict in the corruption case against former Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) one day earlier. Jurors convicted Blagojevich of lying to the FBI on one of 24 charges Aug. 17,

“It’s obvious that the Republicans are going to use this, if they can,” Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) told reporters during a news conference in which he and Giannoulias announced a jobs-focused tour through central and southern parts of the state.

Illinois’ 10.3 percent unemployment rate appears to be a constant concern among voters.

“I just go back to the bottom line. I think that most people are going to ask the question, ‘What are you going to do as a candidate to turn this economy around to create jobs?’ That is the No. 1 issue, not just in this election but across the nation,” Durbin said. “And so yes, I expect the Republican Party to use this; it’s pretty obvious that they will. But I also expect that they have some questions to answer about their own party’s history.”

The state’s two immediate past governors, Blagojevich and Gov. George Ryan (R), have each been convicted of felonies, and even Democrats who proudly voted for Obama in 2008 are feeling disenchanted.

“I think we need to work really hard to get people to listen,” Linda Green, a retired state employee from Christian County said at the fairgrounds on Democrat Day. “The Blagojevich verdict, I think that’s a negative for the Democrats on the ticket.”

Fewer Democratic candidates and supporters attended their party’s rally at the fairgrounds this year, according to loyal attendees who said they were disheartened by the light turnout. Where in past years several Members of Congress took to the stage to deliver speeches, only Rep. Danny Davis (D) represented the House delegation this year. But Democratic National Committee Chairman Tim Kaine attended and emphasized the national party’s commitment to the Senate race, which he said “is actually a very tight race.”

“But this is something where 90 or 120 days ago it was looking really tough, but this race is looking better and better. The momentum is going Alexi’s way,” he said. “We feel like it’s going to be very, very tight, and so the White House is committed and Sen. Durbin obviously and the whole team is committed.”

But Giannoulias was not the party’s top choice to run for Obama’s former Senate seat. White House officials, including White House Chief of Staff and former Rep. Rahm Emanuel, unsuccessfully courted state Attorney General Lisa Madigan to run. Giannoulias won his party’s nomination in February with 39 percent in a six-way primary. Obama has visited his home state just once to raise money for Giannoulias, and White House political strategist David Plouffe appeared to manage expectations during a conference call with reporters last month, calling the race “emininently winnable.”

The race has grown increasingly ugly in recent weeks. Kirk’s camp has characterized Giannoulias as a “mob banker,” and Giannoulias has regularly accused Kirk of lying about his biography and political beliefs. Kirk noted last week that November’s election will also decide who succeeds Sen. Roland Burris (D), who was appointed by Blagojevich to fulfill the remainder of Obama’s term in the lame-duck session. Kirk hopes that issue, more than any other, will help inspire voters to get to the polls Nov. 2.

“When we win this race, both the regular election and the special election, you would send a 42nd Republican Senator immediately to stop the overreach in the lame-duck session of Congress,” Kirk told a group of Republicans. “That single vote that you cast may have more to do about the future prospects of this economy than any other.”