TransUnion released its annual auto loan forecast today indicating national auto loan delinquencies (the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days past due) will increase approximately 7 percent at the end of 2010 to 0.92 percent from an expected 0.86 percent at the conclusion of 2009.
Only one state – California – is expected to see a decline in auto loan delinquencies by the end of 2010. The state’s auto delinquency levels should decrease 3.55 percent from approximately 1.40 percent to 1.35 percent.
“Our forecast indicates we will see auto loan delinquencies drop in the first and second quarters of 2010 due to many factors such as ‘cash for clunkers’ and tightening lending standards,” said Peter Turek, automotive vice president in TransUnion’s financial services group.
“Delinquencies will rise in the second half of 2010 as economic pressures, along with traditional spending patterns of summer vacations, back to school and the holidays, will continue to strain consumers. While the rate of increase should be relatively mild, it is a cautionary number to those expecting an abrupt turnaround in the auto finance industry.”
The expected increase will be the fifth straight year the nation’s 60-day auto loan delinquency rate will have either remained the same or increased from the previous year. Between 2004 and 2005 the nation’s delinquency rate dropped 4.35 percent from 0.69 percent to 0.66 percent.
In addition, the first half decrease in delinquency rates followed by a second half in the year increase also is consistent with the cyclical pattern of previous years, with a new baseline being set with each yearly increase.
Areas in the country expected to experience the highest year-over-year auto delinquency increases include the Midwest and Southeast. Indiana (27.23 percent), Michigan (26.74), Kentucky (22.31) and Georgia (18.71) are among the states expected to see the greatest spikes in auto delinquency.
In addition to California, other parts of the country that have been hit hard by the mortgage crisis look to be slowly improving their credit picture on the auto side as many auto loans reach maturity. Both Florida (4.55 percent increase expected) and Nevada (4.05 percent increase) are among the top 10 states expected to see the least amount of increase in auto loan delinquencies.
At the conclusion of 2010, Mississippi (1.76 percent), Georgia (1.46 percent) and Alabama (1.40 percent) are expected to have the highest auto loan delinquency rates.
The District of Columbia (0.34 percent), North Dakota (0.39 percent) and South Dakota (0.45) should have the lowest delinquency rates during that same time period.
Current auto loan delinquency data for each state and the nation can be found at transunion.com/trenddata.
TransUnion’s Trend Data database
The source of the underlying data used for this analysis is TransUnion’s Trend Data, a one-of-a-kind database consisting of 27 million anonymous consumer records randomly sampled every quarter from TransUnion’s national consumer credit database.
Each record contains more than 200 credit variables that illustrate consumer credit usage and performance.
Since 1992, TransUnion has been aggregating this information at the county, Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), state and national levels.
For more information, please visit transunion.com/trenddata.
About TransUnion
As a global leader in credit and information management, TransUnion creates advantages for millions of people around the world by gathering, analyzing and delivering information.
For businesses, TransUnion helps improve efficiency, manage risk, reduce costs and increase revenue by delivering comprehensive data and advanced analytics and decisioning.
For consumers, TransUnion provides the tools, resources and education to help manage their credit health and achieve their financial goals.
Through these and other efforts, TransUnion is working to build stronger economies worldwide. Founded in 1968 and headquartered in Chicago, TransUnion employs associates in more than 25 countries on five continents.
For more information, please visit transunion.com/business.
High risk mortgage lenders, often referred to as sub-prime lenders, are those that specialize in offering mortgages to individuals with relatively poor credit numbers. As a result of recent record low rates, a lot of buyers are making the decision to buy their first house or renew the financing of their current loan to get a lower rate.
Freedom or Communism? That’s the bottom line.
I love people of all hues, but my favorite hue, now that these colors are so very threatened, are red, white and blue and by God that’s where my loyalty begins and ends.
Health care has ALWAYS been accessible to everyone. FREE OR SUBSIDIZED HEALTHCARE has not always been accessible to everyone.
I hope y’all will think about the bigger picture and refuse to be swayed by the pathetic propaganda that seeks to capture and control you; like a robot; like a useless, stupid comodity.
Once government takes over, the only way for YOU to get free or subsidized health care is for someone else to have their wages taken and re-distributed to you … that’s called SOCIALISM. You should not be proud of being a socialist.
Government innovates nothing. Government is very inefficient in re-distributing wealth, it involves middleman bureaucrats with high salaries, bureaucrats which take FREEDOM away because THEY make the decisions about what healthcare you’ll receive and when.
Run to save this country from tyranny, lest ALL hues perish under the weight of the oncoming, oppressive idealogy that swirls around us all right now!
As far as your and Obama’s definition of “progress”, you agree with each other, BUT the majority of American voters DISAGREE with you and agree with ME. That is, they and I see Obama’s agenda of the last 2 years as socialism, and want it REPEALED. That’s why Republicans are going to pick up so many seats in Congress.
As far as your and Obama’s definition of “progress”, you agree with each other, BUT the majority of American voters DISAGREE with you and agree with ME. That is, they and I see Obama’s agenda of the last 2 years as socialism, and want it REPEALED. That’s why Republicans are going to pick up so many seats in Congress.
ALL ethnic groups have a huge decision to make right now. We either want a free country where individual rights matter or we will vote for those who are pushing Socialism where big, elite government control freaks will reign supreme.
Government innovates nothing. Government is very inefficient in re-distributing wealth, it involves middleman bureaucrats with high salaries, bureaucrats which take FREEDOM away because THEY make the decisions about what healthcare you’ll receive and when.
· It drives me MAD when I go to a blog and there is that ‘comments closed’ wording at the end.. .don’t know why but I feel as if, no matter HOW old the article is, the owner of the content is saying “all that could possibly be said was said, so whatever you have to add just isn’t important enough to matter”. It takes NO skin off people’s noses to keep comments open, maybe once in a blue moon go back through from post 1-50 and reply… but if you don’t then just don’t… but I think regardless you should leave comments open, because isn’t the whole point to encourage interaction?
Wow, you need an education in free market economics.