WASHINGTON, DC – As Democratic midterm prospects worsen and Florida Governor Charlie
Crist hovers within striking distance of Republican nominee Marco
Rubio, an interesting question has arisen in the state’s Senate race:
Would Crist, who dropped out of the GOP primary months
ago to run against Rubio as an independent, caucus with Democrats if
elected? Crist, for his part, isn’t saying. “I caucus with the
people of Florida,” he told CNN’s Ed Henry last week. “This is a moot
question unless I win.” True enough, but it hasn’t stopped others from speculating
about what a Democratic Crist could mean to the composition of the
United States Senate.
- Question Worth Considering Five Thirty Eight’s Nate Silver writes that while Crist
might not want to discuss his plans, the latest polling numbers reveal
he could have a large role in shaping the composition of the Congress.
According to Silver’s latest data analysis, “Democrats now have an
approximately 20 percent chance of losing 10 or more seats in the
Senate, according to the model, which would cost them control of the
chamber unless Crist both wins his race and decides to caucus with
them.”
- Little Impact Crist’s decision to keep quiet on the
subject is smart politics, writes The Washington Post’s Ezra Klein. But “the fact that that’s
smart politics suggests that our politics isn’t very smart.” Klein
contends. Individual politicians “don’t matter as much as much as we
like to think” in Congress. Klein cites the voting record of Maine
Senator Olympia Snow, “arguably the most independent Republican in the
Senate,” who still votes with Republicans more than 67 percent of the
time. It’s numbers like those that cause Klein to doubt whether Crist will ever
emerge as a reliably Democratic vote.
- Tacit White House Support
The Hill’s Cheri Jacobus argues that while Barack
Obama is officially supporting the Democratic nominee, Rep. Kendrick Meek, the
fact the president prefers Crist is “one of the worst-kept secrets in
Washington.” By accepting the “dirty, sexy money from Establishment
Democrats,” Jacobus believes Crist runs the risk of creating the kind of
perception problem that could cause him to lose “what little Republican
support he may have been able to hold onto up to this point,
significantly increasing the chances for a Marco Rubio (R) win in
November.”
- No Room For Error New York Magazine Daily Intel’s Dan Amira says Crist’s recent gaffe
regarding his health care position demonstrates “how hard it will be for
Crist to thread the ideological needle in a way that will secure him a
plurality vote this November with the right concoction of Democrats,
Republicans, and Independents.” Expect the caucus mystery to continue, Amira advises,
as Crist does his best to “appease Democrats without alienating
Republicans, and appease
Republicans without alienating Democrats.”
